Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2019-07-13, Alpine Valley Music Theatre were:
Twist (17, 5.6 shows)
Blaze On (16, 4.8 shows)
Character Zero (14, 5.5 shows)
Carini (14, 5.4 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (14, 5.9 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (13, 7.4 shows)
Fuego (13, 6.7 shows)
Harry Hood (13, 5.1 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (12, 10.1 shows)
Down with Disease (12, 5.9 shows)
Possum (12, 5.7 shows)
Mercury (12, 9.5 shows)
What's the Use? (10, 8.9 shows)
Wilson (10, 9.5 shows)
Martian Monster (10, 12.1 shows)
Simple (10, 7.6 shows)
Funky Bitch (10, 10.4 shows)
Mike's Song (10, 7.4 shows)
555 (8, 11.7 shows)
Walls of the Cave (8, 12.1 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (8, 7.8 shows)
First Tube (8, 6.6 shows)
Back on the Train (7, 6.2 shows)
Ocelot (7, 14.4 shows)
Crosseyed and Painless (7, 11.7 shows)
Julius (7, 15.2 shows)
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (7, 6.3 shows)
Roggae (7, 12.6 shows)
Split Open and Melt (7, 8.7 shows)
Death Don't Hurt Very Long (7, 23.3 shows)
Rise/Come Together (7, 18.9 shows)
Golden Age (7, 7.8 shows)
Farmhouse (7, 14.4 shows)
Miss You (6, 21.6 shows)
Sparkle (6, 20.2 shows)
Halley's Comet (6, 9.5 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 38% of the actual 21-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.