Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2019-07-14, Alpine Valley Music Theatre were:
Twist (17, 5.6 shows)
Carini (14, 5.4 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (14, 5.9 shows)
Bathtub Gin (14, 5.5 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (13, 7.4 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (13, 6.7 shows)
Fuego (13, 6.7 shows)
Possum (12, 5.7 shows)
The Moma Dance (12, 5.3 shows)
More (12, 7.4 shows)
Mercury (12, 9.5 shows)
Down with Disease (12, 5.9 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (12, 10.1 shows)
Martian Monster (10, 12.1 shows)
Wilson (10, 9.5 shows)
What's the Use? (10, 8.9 shows)
Mike's Song (10, 7.4 shows)
Simple (10, 7.6 shows)
Soul Planet (9, 12.6 shows)
First Tube (8, 6.6 shows)
Waste (8, 10.8 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (8, 7.8 shows)
Walls of the Cave (8, 12.1 shows)
Maze (8, 7.8 shows)
555 (8, 11.7 shows)
Roggae (7, 12.6 shows)
Split Open and Melt (7, 8.7 shows)
Death Don't Hurt Very Long (7, 23.3 shows)
Crosseyed and Painless (7, 11.7 shows)
Ocelot (7, 14.4 shows)
Farmhouse (7, 14.4 shows)
Rise/Come Together (7, 18.9 shows)
Julius (7, 15.2 shows)
Birds of a Feather (7, 11.2 shows)
Sparkle (6, 20.2 shows)
Miss You (6, 21.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 19% of the actual 27-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.