Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2024-12-30, Madison Square Garden were:
Down with Disease (12, 5.3 shows)
Tweezer (10, 5.9 shows)
Harry Hood (9, 5.3 shows)
Sand (9, 5.3 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (8, 5.9 shows)
Stash (8, 5.9 shows)
No Men In No Man's Land (8, 6.6 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (8, 5.9 shows)
Sigma Oasis (8, 5.9 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (8, 5.9 shows)
Carini (8, 5.9 shows)
First Tube (7, 6.6 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (7, 6.6 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (7, 6.6 shows)
Evolve (7, 6.6 shows)
Light (7, 7.6 shows)
Possum (7, 6.6 shows)
Golden Age (7, 6.6 shows)
Pillow Jets (6, 7.6 shows)
Hey Stranger (6, 7.6 shows)
Life Saving Gun (6, 7.6 shows)
Steam (6, 8.8 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (6, 7.6 shows)
More (6, 7.6 shows)
Maze (6, 7.6 shows)
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (5, 8.8 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 8.8 shows)
Piper (5, 8.8 shows)
A Life Beyond The Dream (5, 8.8 shows)
Ether Edge (5, 10.6 shows)
Lonely Trip (4, 13.3 shows)
Set Your Soul Free (4, 13.3 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (4, 10.6 shows)
Beneath a Sea of Stars Part 1 (4, 13.3 shows)
Mike's Song (4, 10.6 shows)
The Howling (4, 13.3 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 65% of the actual 20-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.