Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2024-12-31, Madison Square Garden were:
Sand (9, 5.3 shows)
Character Zero (9, 5.3 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (9, 5.3 shows)
Stash (8, 5.9 shows)
Carini (8, 5.9 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (8, 5.9 shows)
Sigma Oasis (8, 5.9 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (7, 6.6 shows)
First Tube (7, 6.6 shows)
Golden Age (7, 6.6 shows)
Light (7, 7.6 shows)
Evolve (7, 6.6 shows)
Pillow Jets (6, 7.6 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (6, 7.6 shows)
Steam (6, 8.8 shows)
Life Saving Gun (6, 7.6 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (6, 7.6 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 8.8 shows)
Ether Edge (5, 10.6 shows)
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (5, 8.8 shows)
Bug (5, 10.6 shows)
Lonely Trip (4, 13.3 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (4, 13.3 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (4, 10.6 shows)
What's the Use? (4, 10.6 shows)
Beneath a Sea of Stars Part 1 (4, 13.3 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (4, 10.6 shows)
Mike's Song (4, 10.6 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (4, 13.3 shows)
The Howling (4, 13.3 shows)
What's Going Through Your Mind (4, 10.6 shows)
Set Your Soul Free (4, 13.3 shows)
Birds of a Feather (3, 17.7 shows)
My Soul (3, 17.7 shows)
Gumbo (3, 17.7 shows)
Ocelot (3, 17.7 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 76% of the actual 29-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.