Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2023-08-02, Madison Square Garden were:
Blaze On (11, 5.9 shows)
Ruby Waves (9, 7 shows)
Stash (9, 6.1 shows)
Possum (9, 6.4 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (9, 5.5 shows)
The Moma Dance (9, 6.1 shows)
Free (9, 6.4 shows)
A Wave of Hope (9, 6.7 shows)
Tweezer (9, 7 shows)
Sand (8, 5.7 shows)
Everything's Right (8, 5.9 shows)
Harry Hood (8, 5.7 shows)
46 Days (8, 6.1 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (7, 9.6 shows)
Carini (7, 6.7 shows)
Fluffhead (7, 9.6 shows)
Mike's Song (7, 9.6 shows)
Set Your Soul Free (7, 10.2 shows)
Simple (7, 9.6 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (7, 8.1 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (7, 7.3 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (6, 9.6 shows)
Drift While You're Sleeping (6, 13.9 shows)
Split Open and Melt (6, 9 shows)
Steam (6, 10.9 shows)
Axilla (Part II) (6, 10.2 shows)
Maze (6, 8.1 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (6, 7.3 shows)
Halley's Comet (6, 10.9 shows)
Piper (6, 8.1 shows)
A Life Beyond The Dream (6, 8.1 shows)
The Howling (5, 10.9 shows)
Leaves (5, 19.1 shows)
More (5, 9 shows)
Plasma (5, 13.9 shows)
Waste (5, 17 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 47% of the actual 17-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.