Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2023-08-04, Madison Square Garden were:
Back on the Train (11, 6.1 shows)
Down with Disease (10, 6.3 shows)
A Wave of Hope (9, 6.6 shows)
Ruby Waves (9, 6.9 shows)
Free (9, 6.3 shows)
The Moma Dance (9, 6.1 shows)
Tweezer (9, 6.9 shows)
Sand (8, 5.6 shows)
First Tube (8, 6.9 shows)
Harry Hood (8, 5.6 shows)
Stash (8, 6.3 shows)
46 Days (8, 6.1 shows)
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (8, 6.9 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (8, 6.6 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (7, 9.5 shows)
Everything's Right (7, 6.1 shows)
Mike's Song (7, 9.5 shows)
Fluffhead (7, 9.5 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (7, 8 shows)
Simple (7, 9.5 shows)
Set Your Soul Free (7, 10.1 shows)
Steam (6, 10.9 shows)
A Life Beyond The Dream (6, 8 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (6, 7.2 shows)
Split Open and Melt (6, 8.9 shows)
Maze (6, 8 shows)
Halley's Comet (6, 10.9 shows)
Fuego (6, 7.6 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (5, 10.1 shows)
Prince Caspian (5, 9.5 shows)
Leaves (5, 19 shows)
Waste (5, 16.9 shows)
More (5, 8.9 shows)
Plasma (5, 13.8 shows)
Drift While You're Sleeping (5, 15.2 shows)
Cities (4, 15.2 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 53% of the actual 17-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.