Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2022-08-14, Alpine Valley Music Theatre were:
Tweezer (16, 6.6 shows)
Carini (15, 5.7 shows)
46 Days (13, 5.4 shows)
Harry Hood (12, 5.2 shows)
Everything's Right (12, 5.5 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (12, 6.2 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (12, 5.2 shows)
Tube (12, 6 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (11, 7.7 shows)
First Tube (11, 6.2 shows)
Possum (10, 6 shows)
Piper (10, 6.9 shows)
Character Zero (10, 6.2 shows)
Bathtub Gin (10, 6.2 shows)
Mike's Song (10, 8 shows)
A Life Beyond The Dream (9, 7.4 shows)
Prince Caspian (9, 8.7 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (9, 6.9 shows)
No Men In No Man's Land (9, 6.9 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (9, 6 shows)
Cavern (8, 9.5 shows)
Soul Planet (8, 18.1 shows)
Split Open and Melt (8, 8.3 shows)
Plasma (8, 11.1 shows)
Scents and Subtle Sounds (8, 12.4 shows)
A Wave of Hope (8, 6.6 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (8, 8 shows)
The Wedge (7, 11.7 shows)
What's the Use? (7, 10.5 shows)
Shade (7, 12.4 shows)
Axilla (Part II) (7, 9.5 shows)
555 (7, 14.2 shows)
Wilson (7, 11.7 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (7, 8 shows)
I Never Needed You Like This Before (7, 18.1 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (7, 14.2 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 33% of the actual 21-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.