Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2022-08-13, Alpine Valley Music Theatre were:
Tweezer (16, 6.7 shows)
46 Days (14, 5.3 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (13, 6.1 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (13, 5.1 shows)
Everything's Right (12, 5.6 shows)
Harry Hood (12, 5.3 shows)
Piper (10, 6.9 shows)
Possum (10, 6.1 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (10, 7.1 shows)
Character Zero (10, 6.3 shows)
Bathtub Gin (10, 6.3 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (10, 6.7 shows)
A Life Beyond The Dream (10, 7.1 shows)
Split Open and Melt (9, 8 shows)
Scents and Subtle Sounds (9, 11.8 shows)
Back on the Train (9, 6.1 shows)
No Men In No Man's Land (9, 6.9 shows)
Prince Caspian (9, 8.7 shows)
Reba (8, 8.7 shows)
Cavern (8, 9.5 shows)
I Never Needed You Like This Before (8, 16.7 shows)
Maze (8, 7.4 shows)
Soul Planet (8, 18.2 shows)
Plasma (8, 11.1 shows)
The Wedge (7, 11.8 shows)
Axilla (Part II) (7, 9.5 shows)
555 (7, 14.3 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (7, 8 shows)
Shade (7, 12.5 shows)
Wilson (7, 11.8 shows)
What's the Use? (7, 10.5 shows)
Beneath a Sea of Stars Part 1 (6, 13.3 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 11.8 shows)
About to Run (6, 11.8 shows)
Ruby Waves (6, 7.4 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (6, 9.5 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 25% of the actual 16-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.