Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2022-08-12, Alpine Valley Music Theatre were:
Ghost (14, 5 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (13, 5.2 shows)
Harry Hood (13, 5.2 shows)
Everything's Right (13, 5.4 shows)
Possum (11, 5.9 shows)
Twist (10, 6.3 shows)
Piper (10, 6.9 shows)
Lonely Trip (9, 9.1 shows)
Split Open and Melt (9, 8 shows)
Scents and Subtle Sounds (9, 11.8 shows)
Prince Caspian (9, 8.7 shows)
Back on the Train (9, 6.1 shows)
Plasma (8, 11.2 shows)
Soul Planet (8, 18.3 shows)
Reba (8, 8.7 shows)
Cavern (8, 9.6 shows)
Drift While You're Sleeping (8, 11.2 shows)
Maze (8, 7.4 shows)
I Never Needed You Like This Before (8, 16.8 shows)
Axilla (Part II) (7, 9.6 shows)
What's the Use? (7, 10.6 shows)
Wilson (7, 11.8 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (7, 8 shows)
The Wedge (7, 11.8 shows)
Shade (7, 12.6 shows)
Rift (6, 11.2 shows)
More (6, 9.1 shows)
Halley's Comet (6, 10.1 shows)
Ruby Waves (6, 7.4 shows)
Funky Bitch (6, 14.4 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 11.8 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (6, 9.6 shows)
Beneath a Sea of Stars Part 1 (6, 13.4 shows)
Bug (6, 11.8 shows)
About to Run (6, 11.8 shows)
The Lizards (6, 18.3 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 41% of the actual 17-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.