Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2018-10-16, Times Union Center were:
The Moma Dance (5, 5.1 shows)
Roggae (4, 11.4 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (4, 9.6 shows)
Prince Caspian (4, 8.3 shows)
Wilson (4, 8.8 shows)
555 (4, 11 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (4, 7.1 shows)
Mike's Song (4, 6.8 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (4, 6.3 shows)
Runaway Jim (3, 9.9 shows)
Back on the Train (3, 6 shows)
I Always Wanted It This Way (3, 16.2 shows)
Heavy Things (3, 25.6 shows)
Birds of a Feather (3, 11 shows)
Walls of the Cave (3, 11 shows)
Split Open and Melt (3, 8.1 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (3, 15.4 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (3, 7.5 shows)
Golgi Apparatus (3, 12.3 shows)
Sparkle (3, 19.2 shows)
Farmhouse (3, 13.3 shows)
Reba (3, 8.3 shows)
Fluffhead (2, 8.5 shows)
Sleeping Monkey (2, 30.7 shows)
Poor Heart (2, 34.1 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (2, 8.3 shows)
Ass Handed (2, 34.1 shows)
Undermind (2, 12.8 shows)
Waking Up Dead (2, 153.5 shows)
Your Pet Cat (2, 30.7 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (2, 17.1 shows)
First Tube (2, 6.1 shows)
Loving Cup (2, 13.3 shows)
AC/DC Bag (2, 10.6 shows)
Lawn Boy (2, 20.5 shows)
My Sweet One (2, 27.9 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 12% of the actual 17-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.