Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2016-12-30, Madison Square Garden were:
Ghost (12, 4.7 shows)
Blaze On (12, 4.8 shows)
555 (10, 9.5 shows)
Light (10, 6.8 shows)
Character Zero (10, 5.6 shows)
No Men In No Man's Land (10, 5.4 shows)
The Moma Dance (10, 5.4 shows)
Bathtub Gin (9, 5.6 shows)
Heavy Things (8, 18.9 shows)
Breath and Burning (8, 22.2 shows)
Maze (8, 7.9 shows)
Tweezer (8, 6.2 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (7, 8.8 shows)
The Line (7, 31.5 shows)
Walls of the Cave (7, 10.8 shows)
Sample in a Jar (7, 12.6 shows)
The Wedge (7, 8.4 shows)
Piper (7, 7.1 shows)
First Tube (6, 6.9 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (6, 9.7 shows)
Limb By Limb (6, 14.5 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 10.8 shows)
Horn (6, 19.9 shows)
Halley's Comet (6, 9.7 shows)
Birds of a Feather (6, 11.1 shows)
Farmhouse (6, 13 shows)
Rock and Roll (6, 19.9 shows)
Back on the Train (6, 6.6 shows)
Lawn Boy (6, 15.8 shows)
Cities (6, 13.5 shows)
Rift (6, 9.9 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (6, 9.9 shows)
Saw It Again (5, 15.8 shows)
Shine a Light (5, 29.1 shows)
Undermind (5, 12.2 shows)
Crosseyed and Painless (5, 11.8 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 40% of the actual 20-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.