Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2016-12-29, Madison Square Garden were:
Blaze On (13, 4.7 shows)
The Moma Dance (11, 5.3 shows)
No Men In No Man's Land (11, 5.3 shows)
555 (10, 9.5 shows)
Light (10, 6.8 shows)
Bathtub Gin (9, 5.6 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (9, 6.6 shows)
Mike's Song (9, 7.2 shows)
Walls of the Cave (8, 10.5 shows)
The Wedge (8, 8.2 shows)
Breath and Burning (8, 22.3 shows)
Tweezer (8, 6.2 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (8, 8.6 shows)
Piper (8, 7 shows)
Maze (8, 7.9 shows)
Sample in a Jar (7, 12.6 shows)
The Line (7, 31.6 shows)
Julius (7, 12.6 shows)
Rift (6, 10 shows)
Lawn Boy (6, 15.8 shows)
Rock and Roll (6, 19.9 shows)
Farmhouse (6, 13.1 shows)
Horn (6, 19.9 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 10.8 shows)
Cities (6, 13.5 shows)
Halley's Comet (6, 9.7 shows)
Back on the Train (6, 6.6 shows)
Limb By Limb (6, 14.6 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (6, 10 shows)
First Tube (6, 6.9 shows)
Bug (5, 11.1 shows)
Twenty Years Later (5, 15.8 shows)
It's Ice (5, 19.9 shows)
David Bowie (5, 10.2 shows)
Wilson (5, 9.7 shows)
Saw It Again (5, 15.8 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 19% of the actual 21-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.