Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2016-12-28, Madison Square Garden were:
Blaze On (13, 4.8 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (11, 6.6 shows)
The Moma Dance (11, 5.4 shows)
No Men In No Man's Land (11, 5.4 shows)
Bathtub Gin (10, 5.5 shows)
Mike's Song (10, 7 shows)
Martian Monster (10, 9.5 shows)
Light (10, 6.8 shows)
Simple (9, 7 shows)
Sample in a Jar (8, 12.3 shows)
Walls of the Cave (8, 10.6 shows)
The Wedge (8, 8.3 shows)
Breath and Burning (8, 22.4 shows)
Back on the Train (7, 6.6 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (7, 9.7 shows)
The Line (7, 31.7 shows)
Julius (7, 12.7 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (7, 14.6 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 10.9 shows)
Limb By Limb (6, 14.6 shows)
Golden Age (6, 8.1 shows)
Cities (6, 13.6 shows)
Halley's Comet (6, 9.7 shows)
First Tube (6, 6.9 shows)
Horn (6, 20 shows)
Cavern (6, 8.4 shows)
Rock and Roll (6, 20 shows)
Farmhouse (6, 13.1 shows)
Rift (6, 10 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (5, 8.6 shows)
Saw It Again (5, 15.8 shows)
Undermind (5, 12.3 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (5, 18.1 shows)
David Bowie (5, 10.3 shows)
Yarmouth Road (5, 31.7 shows)
Twenty Years Later (5, 15.8 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 29% of the actual 21-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.