Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2016-01-02, Madison Square Garden were:
Tweezer (8, 5.6 shows)
Harry Hood (8, 4.6 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (7, 5.5 shows)
Maze (6, 7.3 shows)
The Line (6, 21.4 shows)
Devotion To a Dream (5, 45.1 shows)
Halley's Comet (5, 9 shows)
Sand (5, 4.8 shows)
Divided Sky (4, 9.7 shows)
Rock and Roll (4, 16.9 shows)
Steam (4, 8.1 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (4, 8 shows)
Limb By Limb (4, 12.7 shows)
First Tube (4, 6.5 shows)
Julius (4, 11.3 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (3, 5.9 shows)
Shade (3, 12.7 shows)
Mercury (3, 9.4 shows)
Horn (3, 17.7 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (3, 9.2 shows)
Golden Age (3, 7.8 shows)
Split Open and Melt (3, 9 shows)
Prince Caspian (3, 8.6 shows)
Scent of a Mule (3, 31.2 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (3, 15 shows)
Cities (3, 12.7 shows)
Loving Cup (3, 12.3 shows)
Winterqueen (2, 27.1 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (2, 20.3 shows)
Good Times Bad Times (2, 25.4 shows)
Joy (2, 16.9 shows)
Axilla (2, 20.3 shows)
Ya Mar (2, 15 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (2, 9.4 shows)
Water in the Sky (2, 27.1 shows)
NICU (2, 13.1 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 62% of the actual 21-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.