Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2016-01-01, Madison Square Garden were:
Fuego (10, 5.4 shows)
Harry Hood (8, 4.6 shows)
Light (7, 6.3 shows)
Stash (6, 6.6 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (6, 6.4 shows)
Maze (6, 7.3 shows)
Undermind (5, 11 shows)
Devotion To a Dream (5, 45.2 shows)
Farmhouse (5, 11.6 shows)
Halley's Comet (5, 9 shows)
Sand (5, 4.8 shows)
Limb By Limb (4, 12.7 shows)
Julius (4, 11.3 shows)
Divided Sky (4, 9.9 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (4, 8 shows)
Rock and Roll (4, 17 shows)
First Tube (4, 6.6 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (4, 15.7 shows)
Rift (4, 9 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (3, 9.3 shows)
Loving Cup (3, 12.3 shows)
Golden Age (3, 7.8 shows)
Horn (3, 17.7 shows)
Shade (3, 12.7 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (3, 6.9 shows)
How Many People Are You (3, 40.7 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (3, 15.1 shows)
Cities (3, 13.1 shows)
Mercury (3, 9.5 shows)
Wingsuit (3, 15.7 shows)
Split Open and Melt (3, 9 shows)
Sleeping Monkey (3, 27.1 shows)
Dirt (3, 22.6 shows)
Lawn Boy (3, 15.1 shows)
Winterqueen (2, 27.1 shows)
Sugar Shack (2, 27.1 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 72% of the actual 18-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.