Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2015-09-04, Dick's Sporting Goods Park were:
Sand (8, 4.8 shows)
Birds of a Feather (8, 9.4 shows)
Piper (7, 6.6 shows)
Julius (7, 10.8 shows)
Back on the Train (7, 6.3 shows)
Wingsuit (7, 13.6 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (7, 8.1 shows)
Devotion To a Dream (6, 42.1 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (6, 8.8 shows)
Heavy Things (6, 15.6 shows)
Lawn Boy (6, 14 shows)
David Bowie (6, 9.2 shows)
Cavern (5, 8.3 shows)
Golden Age (5, 7.7 shows)
Poor Heart (5, 20 shows)
Ocelot (5, 11.7 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (5, 5.8 shows)
Yarmouth Road (5, 23.4 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (5, 15 shows)
Carini (5, 5.3 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (5, 9.2 shows)
Sugar Shack (4, 24.8 shows)
Scent of a Mule (4, 28.1 shows)
Silent in the Morning (4, 20 shows)
Axilla (4, 19.1 shows)
Runaway Jim (4, 10.5 shows)
Bug (4, 10.5 shows)
Steam (4, 8.3 shows)
Horn (4, 17.5 shows)
Split Open and Melt (4, 9 shows)
Winterqueen (4, 23.4 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9.4 shows)
Sleeping Monkey (3, 26.3 shows)
Crosseyed and Painless (3, 11.4 shows)
Plasma (3, 12 shows)
Train Song (3, 32.4 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 14% of the actual 21-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.