Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2015-08-23, Watkins Glen International were:
Waiting All Night (11, 17.7 shows)
The Line (10, 17 shows)
Mike's Song (9, 6.4 shows)
Sand (9, 4.8 shows)
Character Zero (9, 5.1 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (9, 6.1 shows)
Birds of a Feather (8, 9.4 shows)
Piper (8, 6.5 shows)
Back on the Train (8, 6.2 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (8, 8 shows)
Wingsuit (8, 13.3 shows)
Maze (7, 7.3 shows)
Lawn Boy (7, 13.7 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (7, 8.7 shows)
Devotion To a Dream (7, 38.5 shows)
Martian Monster (6, 8.8 shows)
Cavern (6, 8.2 shows)
Reba (6, 8.8 shows)
Yarmouth Road (6, 22.3 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (6, 14.6 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (6, 9 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 19.3 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (6, 12.5 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.7 shows)
Ocelot (6, 11.5 shows)
Heavy Things (6, 15.7 shows)
Carini (6, 5.3 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (5, 5.9 shows)
Golden Age (5, 7.7 shows)
Silent in the Morning (5, 19.3 shows)
Winterqueen (5, 22.3 shows)
Horn (4, 17.7 shows)
The Horse (4, 21.2 shows)
Split Open and Melt (4, 9 shows)
Loving Cup (4, 12.1 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9.4 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 45% of the actual 22-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.