Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2015-08-16, Merriweather Post Pavilion were:
Fuego (12, 5.3 shows)
Sand (9, 4.8 shows)
Possum (9, 5.3 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (9, 6.5 shows)
555 (9, 7.7 shows)
Down with Disease (9, 5.2 shows)
Back on the Train (8, 6.2 shows)
Wingsuit (8, 13.3 shows)
Light (8, 6.1 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (8, 8 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (7, 11.8 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (7, 5.4 shows)
Carini (6, 5.3 shows)
Heavy Things (6, 15.7 shows)
Ocelot (6, 11.8 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.7 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (6, 12.8 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (6, 14.6 shows)
Rift (6, 9 shows)
Martian Monster (6, 8.8 shows)
David Bowie (6, 9 shows)
Cavern (6, 8.2 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 19.3 shows)
Julius (6, 10.9 shows)
Undermind (5, 10.6 shows)
Silent in the Morning (5, 19.3 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (5, 6 shows)
Meatstick (5, 14.1 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 13.7 shows)
Winterqueen (5, 22.3 shows)
Sugar Shack (4, 24.9 shows)
Divided Sky (4, 10.1 shows)
The Horse (4, 21.2 shows)
Runaway Jim (4, 10.6 shows)
Scent of a Mule (4, 28.3 shows)
Split Open and Melt (4, 9 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 56% of the actual 18-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.