Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2015-08-21, Watkins Glen International were:
Harry Hood (11, 4.6 shows)
The Line (10, 17 shows)
Free (10, 4.9 shows)
Sand (9, 4.8 shows)
Character Zero (9, 5.1 shows)
Bathtub Gin (8, 5.2 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (8, 8 shows)
Birds of a Feather (8, 9.4 shows)
Wingsuit (8, 13.3 shows)
Back on the Train (8, 6.2 shows)
Sample in a Jar (8, 10.1 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (7, 11.8 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (6, 14.6 shows)
Rift (6, 9 shows)
Cavern (6, 8.2 shows)
Carini (6, 5.3 shows)
Ocelot (6, 11.5 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 19.3 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (6, 12.8 shows)
Heavy Things (6, 15.7 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.7 shows)
Martian Monster (6, 8.8 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 13.7 shows)
Meatstick (5, 14.1 shows)
Silent in the Morning (5, 19.3 shows)
Winterqueen (5, 22.3 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (5, 6 shows)
Sugar Shack (4, 24.9 shows)
Split Open and Melt (4, 9 shows)
The Horse (4, 21.2 shows)
Divided Sky (4, 10.1 shows)
Rock and Roll (4, 16.3 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9.4 shows)
Axilla (4, 19.3 shows)
Loving Cup (4, 12.1 shows)
Runaway Jim (4, 10.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 25% of the actual 20-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.