Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2015-08-15, Merriweather Post Pavilion were:
Tweezer (9, 5.6 shows)
Possum (9, 5.3 shows)
555 (9, 7.7 shows)
Down with Disease (9, 5.2 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (9, 5.4 shows)
Back on the Train (8, 6.2 shows)
Wingsuit (8, 13.3 shows)
Light (8, 6.2 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (8, 8 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (7, 11.8 shows)
Piper (7, 6.5 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (7, 6.2 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (7, 5.4 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.7 shows)
Ocelot (6, 11.8 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (6, 14.6 shows)
Rift (6, 9 shows)
Carini (6, 5.3 shows)
Heavy Things (6, 16.3 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (6, 12.8 shows)
Blaze On (6, 4.6 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 19.3 shows)
Undermind (5, 10.6 shows)
Roggae (5, 9.2 shows)
Simple (5, 6.7 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 13.7 shows)
Walls of the Cave (5, 9.2 shows)
Winterqueen (5, 22.3 shows)
Meatstick (5, 14.1 shows)
Sugar Shack (4, 24.9 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9.4 shows)
Halley's Comet (4, 9 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (4, 8 shows)
The Dogs (4, 23.6 shows)
Divided Sky (4, 10.1 shows)
Split Open and Melt (4, 9 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 41% of the actual 22-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.