Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2015-08-14, Walnut Creek Amphitheater were:
Waiting All Night (10, 17.7 shows)
The Moma Dance (10, 4.9 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (9, 5 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (9, 4.6 shows)
Possum (9, 5.3 shows)
Down with Disease (9, 5.2 shows)
555 (9, 7.7 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (8, 8 shows)
Light (8, 6.2 shows)
Back on the Train (8, 6.2 shows)
Wingsuit (8, 13.3 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (7, 11.8 shows)
The Wedge (7, 7.4 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (7, 5.4 shows)
Piper (7, 6.5 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (6, 14.6 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.7 shows)
Rift (6, 9 shows)
Devotion To a Dream (6, 38.5 shows)
Ocelot (6, 11.8 shows)
Tube (6, 5.4 shows)
Maze (6, 7.4 shows)
Heavy Things (6, 16.3 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (6, 8.7 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 19.3 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (6, 12.8 shows)
Lawn Boy (6, 13.7 shows)
Yarmouth Road (5, 22.3 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 13.7 shows)
Simple (5, 6.8 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (5, 9 shows)
Winterqueen (5, 22.3 shows)
Meatstick (5, 14.1 shows)
Reba (5, 8.8 shows)
Undermind (5, 10.6 shows)
Walls of the Cave (5, 9.2 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 59% of the actual 22-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.