Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2015-08-08, Alpine Valley Music Theatre were:
Fuego (10, 5.3 shows)
The Line (9, 17.7 shows)
Possum (8, 5.4 shows)
Sample in a Jar (7, 10.1 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (7, 11.8 shows)
Character Zero (7, 5.2 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (7, 6.6 shows)
Ocelot (6, 11.8 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (6, 6.3 shows)
Tube (6, 5.4 shows)
Devotion To a Dream (6, 38.5 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.8 shows)
Heavy Things (6, 16.3 shows)
Maze (5, 7.4 shows)
Roggae (5, 9.4 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (5, 9 shows)
Simple (5, 6.8 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 13.7 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (5, 14.6 shows)
Yarmouth Road (5, 22.3 shows)
David Bowie (5, 9.2 shows)
Cavern (5, 8.3 shows)
Carini (5, 5.4 shows)
Undermind (5, 10.6 shows)
Poor Heart (5, 19.3 shows)
Winterqueen (5, 22.3 shows)
The Dogs (4, 24.9 shows)
Martian Monster (4, 8.8 shows)
Julius (4, 11.2 shows)
Runaway Jim (4, 10.9 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (4, 6 shows)
Meatstick (4, 14.6 shows)
Sugar Shack (4, 24.9 shows)
Silent in the Morning (4, 20.2 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9.6 shows)
Reba (4, 8.8 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 53% of the actual 19-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.