Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2015-08-09, Alpine Valley Music Theatre were:
Wolfman's Brother (9, 5.1 shows)
555 (9, 7.9 shows)
The Line (9, 17.7 shows)
Free (9, 4.9 shows)
Mike's Song (7, 6.4 shows)
Piper (7, 6.5 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (7, 11.8 shows)
Birds of a Feather (7, 9.4 shows)
Sample in a Jar (7, 10.1 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (7, 6.1 shows)
Devotion To a Dream (6, 38.5 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (6, 6.3 shows)
Ocelot (6, 11.8 shows)
Heavy Things (6, 16.3 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.8 shows)
Lawn Boy (6, 13.7 shows)
Stash (6, 6.7 shows)
Tube (6, 5.4 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (5, 9 shows)
Simple (5, 6.8 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 13.7 shows)
Roggae (5, 9.4 shows)
Yarmouth Road (5, 22.3 shows)
David Bowie (5, 9.2 shows)
Cavern (5, 8.3 shows)
Carini (5, 5.4 shows)
Walls of the Cave (5, 9.2 shows)
Winterqueen (5, 22.3 shows)
Undermind (5, 10.6 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (4, 6 shows)
Sugar Shack (4, 24.9 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9.6 shows)
Silent in the Morning (4, 20.2 shows)
Runaway Jim (4, 10.9 shows)
Golden Age (4, 7.9 shows)
The Dogs (4, 24.9 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 19% of the actual 21-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.