Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2015-08-07, Blossom Music Center were:
The Moma Dance (9, 4.9 shows)
Ghost (9, 4.3 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (7, 5.5 shows)
Tweezer (7, 5.7 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (7, 11.8 shows)
Wingsuit (7, 13.3 shows)
Character Zero (7, 5.2 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (7, 6.6 shows)
Tube (6, 5.4 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.8 shows)
Ocelot (6, 11.8 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (6, 6.3 shows)
Bathtub Gin (6, 5.2 shows)
Heavy Things (6, 16.3 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (5, 9 shows)
Simple (5, 6.8 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 13.7 shows)
Rift (5, 9 shows)
Yarmouth Road (5, 22.3 shows)
David Bowie (5, 9.2 shows)
Carini (5, 5.4 shows)
Undermind (5, 10.6 shows)
Poor Heart (5, 19.3 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (5, 12.8 shows)
Winterqueen (5, 22.3 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (5, 14.6 shows)
Sugar Shack (4, 24.9 shows)
Runaway Jim (4, 10.9 shows)
Reba (4, 8.8 shows)
The Dogs (4, 24.9 shows)
Martian Monster (4, 8.8 shows)
Meatstick (4, 14.6 shows)
Silent in the Morning (4, 20.2 shows)
Julius (4, 11.2 shows)
Farmhouse (3, 12.1 shows)
The Horse (3, 22.3 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 42% of the actual 19-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.