Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 1999-12-11, First Union Spectrum were:
Chalk Dust Torture (17, 3.9 shows)
Mike's Song (13, 4.9 shows)
Character Zero (13, 4.4 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (12, 5.2 shows)
Meatstick (12, 11.5 shows)
Ghost (12, 4.7 shows)
The Moma Dance (12, 4.6 shows)
Tube (11, 5.7 shows)
Possum (11, 4.3 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (11, 4.8 shows)
Prince Caspian (11, 7.3 shows)
Harry Hood (10, 4.1 shows)
Cavern (10, 5.9 shows)
Runaway Jim (10, 7.7 shows)
Wilson (10, 6.6 shows)
Stash (10, 5.9 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (9, 9.6 shows)
Maze (9, 6.8 shows)
Jam (9, 44.6 shows)
Split Open and Melt (9, 8.6 shows)
Sample in a Jar (9, 6.5 shows)
Taste (9, 11.3 shows)
Julius (8, 7.6 shows)
Sparkle (8, 13.3 shows)
When the Circus Comes (8, 16 shows)
Carini (8, 6 shows)
Axilla (8, 11.6 shows)
Frankenstein (7, 22.3 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (7, 9.9 shows)
Vultures (7, 23.6 shows)
Brian and Robert (7, 22.3 shows)
Beauty of My Dreams (7, 33.9 shows)
Mountains in the Mist (7, 19.3 shows)
AC/DC Bag (7, 7.6 shows)
Poor Heart (7, 14.1 shows)
Billy Breathes (7, 32.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 64% of the actual 14-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.