Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2023-07-30, Madison Square Garden were:
Blaze On (12, 5.7 shows)
Ghost (11, 5.3 shows)
Tweezer (11, 6.7 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (9, 5.5 shows)
Possum (9, 6.5 shows)
46 Days (9, 6 shows)
Tube (9, 6.7 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (8, 8.2 shows)
Twist (8, 6.7 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (8, 6.7 shows)
No Men In No Man's Land (8, 7 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (8, 6.2 shows)
David Bowie (8, 9.1 shows)
Sigma Oasis (8, 6.5 shows)
Everything's Right (8, 6 shows)
Bathtub Gin (8, 6.5 shows)
Sand (8, 5.7 shows)
Halley's Comet (7, 10.3 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (7, 7.4 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (7, 7 shows)
Character Zero (7, 6.5 shows)
Reba (6, 9.7 shows)
Maze (6, 8.2 shows)
Piper (6, 8.2 shows)
Shade (6, 15.5 shows)
Steam (6, 11.1 shows)
Axilla (Part II) (6, 10.3 shows)
The Howling (6, 10.3 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (6, 7 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (6, 9.7 shows)
Drift While You're Sleeping (6, 14.1 shows)
Waste (5, 17.2 shows)
Sample in a Jar (5, 12.9 shows)
Leaves (5, 19.4 shows)
Light (5, 8.2 shows)
555 (4, 19.4 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 38% of the actual 16-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.