Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2023-07-25, TD Pavilion at the Mann were:
Blaze On (11, 5.9 shows)
Back on the Train (10, 6.1 shows)
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (9, 6.6 shows)
The Moma Dance (9, 6.1 shows)
A Wave of Hope (9, 6.6 shows)
Down with Disease (9, 6.4 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (9, 5.5 shows)
No Men In No Man's Land (8, 6.9 shows)
Harry Hood (8, 5.7 shows)
Bathtub Gin (8, 6.4 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (8, 8.4 shows)
First Tube (8, 6.9 shows)
Halley's Comet (7, 10.6 shows)
Set Your Soul Free (7, 9.9 shows)
Fluffhead (7, 9.4 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (7, 9.4 shows)
Simple (7, 9.4 shows)
Carini (7, 6.6 shows)
Mike's Song (6, 9.4 shows)
Shade (6, 15.9 shows)
Axilla (Part II) (6, 9.9 shows)
Split Open and Melt (6, 8.8 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (6, 8.4 shows)
Drift While You're Sleeping (6, 14.5 shows)
Golden Age (6, 7.6 shows)
The Howling (6, 10.6 shows)
Piper (6, 8 shows)
Light (6, 8 shows)
Reba (6, 9.9 shows)
A Life Beyond The Dream (5, 8.4 shows)
Prince Caspian (5, 9.4 shows)
Wilson (5, 13.3 shows)
Roggae (5, 12.2 shows)
Waste (5, 15.9 shows)
Loving Cup (4, 17.7 shows)
The Wedge (4, 14.5 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 47% of the actual 19-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.