Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2022-12-31, Madison Square Garden were:
Tweezer (12, 6.4 shows)
Ghost (10, 5.1 shows)
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (9, 6.1 shows)
Carini (9, 5.9 shows)
First Tube (9, 6.1 shows)
Set Your Soul Free (9, 8.2 shows)
Prince Caspian (8, 7.8 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (8, 8.2 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (7, 7.2 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (7, 6.6 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (7, 6.1 shows)
Mike's Song (7, 8.2 shows)
Piper (6, 7.2 shows)
Soul Planet (6, 21.5 shows)
Axilla (Part II) (6, 9.1 shows)
Drift While You're Sleeping (6, 12.3 shows)
A Life Beyond The Dream (6, 7.5 shows)
Halley's Comet (6, 9.6 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (6, 13.2 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 11.5 shows)
I Never Needed You Like This Before (5, 19.1 shows)
More (5, 9.1 shows)
Shade (5, 13.2 shows)
What's the Use? (5, 10.8 shows)
Wilson (5, 11.5 shows)
Light (5, 7.5 shows)
Cavern (5, 9.6 shows)
The Wedge (5, 11.5 shows)
Fuego (5, 7.5 shows)
Waste (5, 13.2 shows)
Scents and Subtle Sounds (4, 14.3 shows)
Mountains in the Mist (4, 10.8 shows)
Gumbo (4, 14.3 shows)
About to Run (4, 12.3 shows)
The Lizards (4, 21.5 shows)
Rift (4, 11.5 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 71% of the actual 31-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.