Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2022-07-20, TD Pavilion at the Mann were:
Ghost (14, 4.9 shows)
Sand (14, 5 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (13, 5.2 shows)
Tube (12, 5.9 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (12, 7.3 shows)
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (12, 6.1 shows)
Simple (11, 7.8 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (10, 7.3 shows)
Set Your Soul Free (9, 8.4 shows)
Back on the Train (9, 5.9 shows)
Lonely Trip (9, 9.5 shows)
A Life Beyond The Dream (9, 7.3 shows)
Split Open and Melt (8, 8.1 shows)
Cavern (8, 9.5 shows)
Prince Caspian (8, 8.4 shows)
Plasma (7, 11 shows)
Runaway Jim (7, 9.5 shows)
Scents and Subtle Sounds (7, 12.9 shows)
Soul Planet (7, 18.3 shows)
The Wedge (7, 11 shows)
About to Run (7, 11.5 shows)
The Lizards (6, 16.8 shows)
Ruby Waves (6, 7.3 shows)
Mountains in the Mist (6, 11.5 shows)
Steam (6, 10 shows)
Meat (6, 18.3 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (6, 7.8 shows)
Bug (6, 11.5 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 11.5 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (6, 12.9 shows)
Birds of a Feather (5, 12.9 shows)
Waste (5, 12.9 shows)
AC/DC Bag (5, 11.5 shows)
Funky Bitch (5, 14.6 shows)
The Final Hurrah (5, 27.4 shows)
Mull (5, 14.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 56% of the actual 18-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.