Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2021-10-26, Santa Barbara Bowl were:
46 Days (6, 5.3 shows)
Blaze On (6, 5.3 shows)
Sigma Oasis (6, 5.5 shows)
Twist (6, 6.1 shows)
I Never Needed You Like This Before (5, 15.6 shows)
Possum (5, 5.8 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (5, 5.8 shows)
Drift While You're Sleeping (5, 10.4 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 8.1 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (5, 7.3 shows)
Character Zero (5, 6.1 shows)
Runaway Jim (5, 9.5 shows)
Rift (5, 11 shows)
Back on the Train (5, 6.1 shows)
The Final Hurrah (4, 27.4 shows)
Meat (4, 18.3 shows)
The Wedge (4, 11 shows)
Set Your Soul Free (4, 8.4 shows)
Plasma (4, 11 shows)
Ruby Waves (4, 7.3 shows)
Stash (4, 6.4 shows)
Down with Disease (4, 6.3 shows)
AC/DC Bag (4, 11.5 shows)
Ya Mar (4, 18.3 shows)
Reba (4, 8.4 shows)
Farmhouse (3, 18.3 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (3, 13.7 shows)
Golden Age (3, 7.8 shows)
Halley's Comet (3, 9.5 shows)
About to Run (3, 11.5 shows)
The Squirming Coil (3, 14.6 shows)
Divided Sky (3, 11.5 shows)
Destiny Unbound (3, 31.3 shows)
Fuego (3, 8.1 shows)
Prince Caspian (3, 8.4 shows)
Walls of the Cave (3, 14.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 30% of the actual 20-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.