Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2018-12-31, Madison Square Garden were:
Twist (10, 5.5 shows)
Character Zero (9, 5.5 shows)
Harry Hood (8, 5 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (8, 7.2 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (8, 4.9 shows)
Sand (8, 4.8 shows)
The Moma Dance (7, 5.2 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (7, 9.8 shows)
Down with Disease (7, 5.8 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (7, 7.4 shows)
Mercury (6, 9.2 shows)
Soul Planet (6, 12.1 shows)
Steam (6, 8 shows)
What's the Use? (6, 8.9 shows)
Golden Age (5, 7.6 shows)
Ocelot (5, 14.4 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (5, 7.6 shows)
555 (5, 11.2 shows)
Roggae (5, 12.1 shows)
Simple (5, 7.6 shows)
Piper (5, 6.9 shows)
Julius (5, 15.2 shows)
Back on the Train (4, 6.2 shows)
Meatstick (4, 18.9 shows)
Joy (4, 17.8 shows)
Runaway Jim (4, 9.8 shows)
Bug (4, 10.8 shows)
Scents and Subtle Sounds (4, 12.6 shows)
Halley's Comet (4, 9.5 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (4, 12.1 shows)
Birds of a Feather (4, 11.2 shows)
Prince Caspian (4, 8.7 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (4, 17.8 shows)
Farmhouse (4, 14.4 shows)
Miss You (4, 21.6 shows)
Lawn Boy (3, 21.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 57% of the actual 28-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.