Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2018-10-26, Allstate Arena were:
Blaze On (8, 4.7 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (7, 4.8 shows)
Fuego (7, 6.5 shows)
46 Days (7, 4.8 shows)
Carini (7, 5.2 shows)
Twist (7, 5.4 shows)
The Wedge (7, 8.8 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (7, 5.4 shows)
Sand (7, 4.7 shows)
Tube (6, 5.5 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (6, 9.6 shows)
Steam (6, 7.7 shows)
Tweezer (6, 5.7 shows)
Julius (6, 14 shows)
The Moma Dance (6, 5.1 shows)
Ocelot (5, 13.3 shows)
Piper (5, 7 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (5, 7.1 shows)
Martian Monster (5, 11.4 shows)
Cavern (5, 8.5 shows)
Wilson (5, 8.8 shows)
Roggae (5, 11.4 shows)
Walls of the Cave (4, 11.4 shows)
Split Open and Melt (4, 8.3 shows)
Birds of a Feather (4, 11.4 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (4, 16.2 shows)
Sparkle (4, 19.2 shows)
Mercury (4, 9.3 shows)
Golden Age (4, 7.7 shows)
Prince Caspian (4, 8.3 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (4, 9.6 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (4, 11.4 shows)
Runaway Jim (4, 9.9 shows)
Heavy Things (3, 25.6 shows)
I Always Wanted It This Way (3, 16.2 shows)
Fluffhead (3, 8.8 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 41% of the actual 17-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.