Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2018-08-11, Merriweather Post Pavilion were:
555 (5, 10.5 shows)
Possum (5, 5.3 shows)
Tube (5, 5.4 shows)
Ghost (5, 4.4 shows)
Harry Hood (5, 4.6 shows)
Bathtub Gin (5, 5.1 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (5, 5.3 shows)
What's the Use? (5, 8.3 shows)
Simple (5, 7.1 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (5, 4.6 shows)
Fuego (5, 6.4 shows)
Sand (5, 4.6 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (5, 5.3 shows)
Walls of the Cave (4, 10.5 shows)
Reba (4, 8.1 shows)
Martian Monster (4, 10.5 shows)
Back on the Train (4, 5.9 shows)
Cavern (4, 8.3 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (4, 5.5 shows)
Soul Planet (4, 12.1 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (4, 9.5 shows)
Twist (4, 5.3 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (3, 16.5 shows)
Tweezer (3, 5.6 shows)
Piper (3, 6.7 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (3, 5.6 shows)
First Tube (3, 5.9 shows)
Prince Caspian (3, 8.3 shows)
Maze (3, 7.5 shows)
Ass Handed (2, 34.9 shows)
Winterqueen (2, 44.9 shows)
The Horse (2, 28.5 shows)
The Lizards (2, 14.3 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (2, 8.3 shows)
Most Events Aren't Planned (2, 15.7 shows)
Rise/Come Together (2, 18.5 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 29% of the actual 17-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.