Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2015-12-30, Madison Square Garden were:
Weekapaug Groove (7, 6 shows)
Mike's Song (7, 6.4 shows)
Possum (7, 5.4 shows)
Maze (6, 7.3 shows)
Stash (6, 6.7 shows)
Sample in a Jar (5, 10.8 shows)
Devotion To a Dream (5, 45.4 shows)
Reba (5, 8.7 shows)
Sand (5, 4.9 shows)
Birds of a Feather (5, 9.7 shows)
Farmhouse (5, 11.7 shows)
Simple (5, 6.7 shows)
Julius (5, 11.1 shows)
First Tube (4, 6.6 shows)
David Bowie (4, 9.3 shows)
Lawn Boy (4, 14.6 shows)
Rift (4, 9.3 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (4, 8 shows)
Back on the Train (4, 6.4 shows)
Cities (4, 12.8 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (4, 6.8 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (4, 8.2 shows)
Divided Sky (4, 10 shows)
Cavern (4, 8.2 shows)
The Dogs (3, 25.6 shows)
Bug (3, 10.5 shows)
Meatstick (3, 15.1 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (3, 9.3 shows)
What's the Use? (3, 8.2 shows)
Dirt (3, 22.7 shows)
Axilla (3, 19.5 shows)
How Many People Are You (3, 40.9 shows)
Shade (3, 12.8 shows)
Heavy Things (3, 17 shows)
Poor Heart (3, 21.5 shows)
The Squirming Coil (2, 13.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 37% of the actual 19-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.