Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2014-10-27, Bill Graham Civic Auditorium were:
Waiting All Night (13, 13.8 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (12, 4.5 shows)
Back on the Train (11, 6 shows)
Cavern (11, 7.6 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (11, 10.1 shows)
Ocelot (10, 10.4 shows)
Julius (10, 9.7 shows)
Rift (10, 8.4 shows)
Light (10, 6 shows)
Possum (10, 5.2 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (9, 12.7 shows)
Yarmouth Road (9, 17.5 shows)
Birds of a Feather (9, 8.6 shows)
Sand (9, 4.9 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (8, 5.4 shows)
Reba (8, 8.4 shows)
Stash (8, 6.6 shows)
Wombat (8, 20.7 shows)
Heavy Things (7, 14.3 shows)
Roggae (6, 9.3 shows)
Lawn Boy (6, 13 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 17.5 shows)
First Tube (6, 6.8 shows)
Sing Monica (6, 57 shows)
Simple (6, 6.9 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 13.4 shows)
Meatstick (5, 14.3 shows)
Maze (5, 7.5 shows)
Wilson (5, 9.5 shows)
Sugar Shack (4, 22.8 shows)
Limb By Limb (4, 12.7 shows)
Gumbo (4, 13.8 shows)
Golgi Apparatus (4, 12.3 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (4, 19.8 shows)
The Squirming Coil (4, 13.4 shows)
Fluffhead (4, 10.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 38% of the actual 24-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.