Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2012-08-18, Bill Graham Civic Auditorium were:
Backwards Down the Number Line (10, 5.4 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (8, 5.3 shows)
Mike's Song (8, 5.5 shows)
Tube (8, 5.2 shows)
Character Zero (7, 4.7 shows)
Back on the Train (7, 5.7 shows)
Maze (7, 6.8 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (7, 5.1 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (7, 5.6 shows)
Golden Age (7, 7 shows)
Carini (7, 5.2 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (7, 4.8 shows)
Hold Your Head Up (6, 44.5 shows)
Ocelot (6, 8.1 shows)
Loving Cup (5, 10.9 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (5, 13.7 shows)
Scent of a Mule (5, 21.4 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (5, 10.5 shows)
Simple (5, 7.2 shows)
Golgi Apparatus (5, 11.6 shows)
Alaska (5, 25.4 shows)
Silent in the Morning (5, 13.4 shows)
Runaway Jim (5, 9.4 shows)
The Wedge (5, 6.8 shows)
Fluffhead (5, 9.5 shows)
Bug (4, 10.3 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (4, 6.6 shows)
46 Days (4, 4.5 shows)
Heavy Things (4, 13 shows)
The Squirming Coil (4, 13 shows)
NICU (4, 12.1 shows)
Sneakin' Sally Through the Alley (4, 19.8 shows)
Show of Life (4, 28.1 shows)
The Sloth (4, 33.4 shows)
Prince Caspian (4, 8.3 shows)
The Horse (4, 19.8 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 68% of the actual 28-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.