Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2012-07-03, Nikon at Jones Beach Theater were:
Chalk Dust Torture (11, 4.1 shows)
Funky Bitch (10, 8.1 shows)
Tweezer (10, 5.1 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (9, 5.3 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (9, 5 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (8, 5.1 shows)
Mike's Song (8, 5.5 shows)
Axilla (8, 13.6 shows)
Sample in a Jar (8, 8.2 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (8, 4.7 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (7, 10.2 shows)
Roses Are Free (7, 19.4 shows)
The Wedge (6, 6.7 shows)
Alaska (6, 23.6 shows)
Free (6, 4.8 shows)
David Bowie (6, 7.3 shows)
Show of Life (6, 24.7 shows)
Tube (6, 5.3 shows)
Stash (5, 6.3 shows)
Prince Caspian (5, 8.1 shows)
Loving Cup (5, 10.9 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (5, 6.5 shows)
Simple (5, 7.2 shows)
Silent in the Morning (5, 12.9 shows)
Cities (4, 11.6 shows)
Scent of a Mule (4, 20.9 shows)
Walls of the Cave (4, 9.2 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (4, 13.2 shows)
Sneakin' Sally Through the Alley (4, 19.4 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (4, 7.6 shows)
Guyute (4, 27.2 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (4, 17.5 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (4, 11.8 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (4, 7.6 shows)
Rocky Top (4, 25.9 shows)
Bug (4, 10.2 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 38% of the actual 24-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.