Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2012-07-04, Nikon at Jones Beach Theater were:
Cavern (11, 6.3 shows)
Down with Disease (11, 4.6 shows)
Funky Bitch (10, 8.1 shows)
Tweezer (10, 5.1 shows)
Bathtub Gin (9, 4.8 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (9, 5 shows)
Rift (8, 7.1 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (8, 5.1 shows)
Twist (8, 4.6 shows)
Sample in a Jar (8, 8.2 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (7, 10.2 shows)
Roses Are Free (7, 19.4 shows)
Alaska (6, 23.6 shows)
Limb By Limb (6, 10.9 shows)
Show of Life (6, 24.7 shows)
Birds of a Feather (6, 7.5 shows)
David Bowie (6, 7.3 shows)
Free (6, 4.8 shows)
Prince Caspian (5, 8.1 shows)
Loving Cup (5, 10.9 shows)
Silent in the Morning (5, 12.9 shows)
Simple (5, 7.2 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (5, 6.5 shows)
Stash (5, 6.3 shows)
Walls of the Cave (4, 9.2 shows)
Scent of a Mule (4, 20.9 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (4, 13.2 shows)
Cities (4, 11.6 shows)
Rocky Top (4, 25.9 shows)
The Horse (4, 18.7 shows)
Divided Sky (4, 9.4 shows)
Gumbo (4, 12.1 shows)
Guyute (4, 27.2 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (4, 11.8 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (4, 7.6 shows)
Sneakin' Sally Through the Alley (4, 19.4 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 37% of the actual 30-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.