Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2012-06-23, First Niagara Pavilion were:
Funky Bitch (10, 7.9 shows)
Character Zero (9, 4.6 shows)
The Moma Dance (8, 4.4 shows)
Light (8, 5.4 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (8, 5.5 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (8, 7.3 shows)
Piper (7, 5.8 shows)
Roses Are Free (7, 18.8 shows)
Golden Age (7, 6.7 shows)
Ghost (7, 4.3 shows)
Ocelot (7, 7.8 shows)
The Wedge (6, 6.7 shows)
Show of Life (6, 23.7 shows)
Prince Caspian (5, 8 shows)
Quinn the Eskimo (The Mighty Quinn) (5, 28.7 shows)
Crosseyed and Painless (5, 11.1 shows)
Loving Cup (5, 10.7 shows)
Silent in the Morning (5, 12.7 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (5, 6.6 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (5, 13 shows)
Steam (4, 8.5 shows)
Sneakin' Sally Through the Alley (4, 19.5 shows)
46 Days (4, 4.5 shows)
Lawn Boy (4, 11.4 shows)
Walls of the Cave (4, 9.3 shows)
Timber (Jerry the Mule) (4, 15.2 shows)
Rocky Top (4, 26 shows)
First Tube (4, 6.8 shows)
The Horse (4, 18.2 shows)
Heavy Things (4, 12.4 shows)
Bug (4, 10.1 shows)
Reba (4, 8.3 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9.3 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (4, 12.1 shows)
NICU (4, 12.1 shows)
The Squirming Coil (4, 13 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 26% of the actual 19-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.