Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2023-07-22, The Pavilion at Star Lake were:
Ghost (11, 5.4 shows)
Tweezer (10, 7 shows)
Down with Disease (9, 6.4 shows)
First Tube (9, 6.7 shows)
Tube (9, 6.7 shows)
Possum (9, 6.4 shows)
Sand (9, 5.6 shows)
The Moma Dance (9, 6.2 shows)
Free (9, 6.2 shows)
Harry Hood (8, 5.8 shows)
Everything's Right (8, 6 shows)
Bathtub Gin (8, 6.4 shows)
No Men In No Man's Land (8, 7 shows)
Set Your Soul Free (8, 9.5 shows)
Twist (8, 6.7 shows)
Carini (8, 6.4 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (8, 6.2 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (8, 8.5 shows)
Fluffhead (7, 9.5 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (7, 9.5 shows)
Prince Caspian (7, 8.9 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (7, 7 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (7, 6.7 shows)
Halley's Comet (7, 10.7 shows)
Piper (6, 8.1 shows)
Axilla (Part II) (6, 10.1 shows)
Mike's Song (6, 9.5 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (6, 7.3 shows)
Golden Age (6, 7.7 shows)
Reba (6, 10.1 shows)
Split Open and Melt (6, 8.9 shows)
Plasma (5, 13.4 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (5, 7.3 shows)
Undermind (5, 16.1 shows)
Roggae (5, 12.4 shows)
Waste (5, 16.1 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 27% of the actual 22-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.