Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2022-12-29, Madison Square Garden were:
Tweezer (12, 6.4 shows)
Ghost (11, 4.9 shows)
Sand (11, 5.1 shows)
Down with Disease (10, 5.8 shows)
Blaze On (10, 5.2 shows)
Tube (9, 6 shows)
Carini (9, 6 shows)
Possum (9, 5.8 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (8, 5.1 shows)
Back on the Train (8, 5.8 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (8, 8.2 shows)
Prince Caspian (8, 7.9 shows)
No Men In No Man's Land (8, 6.4 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (7, 7.2 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (7, 6.7 shows)
The Howling (7, 9.1 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (6, 13.3 shows)
Axilla (Part II) (6, 9.1 shows)
Piper (6, 7.2 shows)
Soul Planet (6, 21.6 shows)
What's the Use? (6, 10.2 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (6, 7.9 shows)
Cavern (6, 9.1 shows)
Reba (6, 9.1 shows)
I Never Needed You Like This Before (5, 19.2 shows)
Wilson (5, 11.5 shows)
Golden Age (5, 7.2 shows)
Ruby Waves (5, 6.9 shows)
Shade (5, 13.3 shows)
The Wedge (5, 11.5 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (5, 6.9 shows)
Light (5, 7.5 shows)
Lonely Trip (5, 10.2 shows)
Waste (5, 13.3 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9.1 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (4, 15.7 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 44% of the actual 16-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.