Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2016-06-25, Wrigley Field were:
46 Days (11, 4.6 shows)
Tweezer (9, 5.8 shows)
Harry Hood (9, 4.7 shows)
555 (8, 8.4 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (8, 5.6 shows)
Possum (8, 5.5 shows)
Waiting All Night (8, 23.2 shows)
Light (8, 6.4 shows)
Reba (7, 9.2 shows)
Halley's Comet (6, 9 shows)
Tube (6, 5.4 shows)
Julius (6, 11.6 shows)
Maze (6, 7.4 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (6, 13.6 shows)
Birds of a Feather (5, 10.1 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (5, 8.2 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (5, 7 shows)
David Bowie (5, 9.9 shows)
Piper (5, 6.8 shows)
Carini (5, 5.3 shows)
Rock and Roll (5, 17.1 shows)
Limb By Limb (5, 13.1 shows)
What's the Use? (5, 8 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (4, 16.4 shows)
Cavern (4, 8.2 shows)
First Tube (4, 6.7 shows)
Silent in the Morning (4, 21.9 shows)
Wingsuit (4, 15.2 shows)
Prince Caspian (4, 8.8 shows)
Back on the Train (4, 6.5 shows)
How Many People Are You (4, 39.4 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (4, 14.6 shows)
Divided Sky (4, 10.4 shows)
Dirt (4, 23.2 shows)
Devotion To a Dream (4, 56.3 shows)
Lawn Boy (4, 14.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 55% of the actual 20-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.