Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2014-10-29, Bill Graham Civic Auditorium were:
The Line (14, 13 shows)
Character Zero (13, 4.9 shows)
Down with Disease (12, 5.1 shows)
Back on the Train (11, 6 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (11, 6.4 shows)
Cavern (11, 7.6 shows)
Bathtub Gin (10, 5.2 shows)
Sparkle (10, 15.7 shows)
The Wedge (10, 7 shows)
Light (10, 6 shows)
Possum (10, 5.2 shows)
Yarmouth Road (9, 17.5 shows)
Sample in a Jar (9, 9.7 shows)
Tube (9, 5.4 shows)
David Bowie (9, 8.6 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (9, 8.3 shows)
Wombat (8, 20.7 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (8, 13 shows)
Reba (7, 8.6 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (7, 12 shows)
Heavy Things (7, 14.2 shows)
Simple (6, 6.9 shows)
Sing Monica (6, 56.9 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.8 shows)
First Tube (6, 6.8 shows)
Roggae (6, 9.3 shows)
Waves (6, 16.3 shows)
Silent in the Morning (6, 18.2 shows)
Lawn Boy (6, 13 shows)
Divided Sky (5, 10.1 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 9.1 shows)
Meatstick (5, 14.2 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 13.4 shows)
It's Ice (5, 17.5 shows)
Wilson (5, 9.5 shows)
Undermind (5, 10.8 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 67% of the actual 21-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.