Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2013-07-12, Nikon at Jones Beach Theater were:
Kill Devil Falls (7, 6.7 shows)
The Moma Dance (7, 4.6 shows)
Character Zero (6, 4.7 shows)
Rift (6, 7.7 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (6, 5.5 shows)
Mike's Song (6, 5.8 shows)
Runaway Jim (6, 9.7 shows)
Ocelot (6, 8.4 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (5, 5.8 shows)
Rock and Roll (5, 13.7 shows)
Silent in the Morning (5, 14.5 shows)
Roses Are Free (5, 25.3 shows)
Birds of a Feather (5, 7.7 shows)
Twist (5, 4.8 shows)
Golden Age (5, 7.3 shows)
46 Days (5, 4.4 shows)
Cities (4, 12 shows)
Fluffhead (4, 9.9 shows)
Stash (4, 6.4 shows)
David Bowie (4, 7.8 shows)
The Horse (4, 22 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9.5 shows)
Nellie Kane (4, 24.1 shows)
First Tube (3, 6.9 shows)
Reba (3, 8.6 shows)
Walk Away (3, 33.7 shows)
Alaska (3, 31.6 shows)
Ride Captain Ride (3, 126.5 shows)
If I Could (2, 29.8 shows)
When the Circus Comes (2, 23 shows)
Sugar Shack (2, 22 shows)
I Didn't Know (2, 23 shows)
Shine a Light (2, 29.8 shows)
Quinn the Eskimo (The Mighty Quinn) (2, 42.2 shows)
NICU (2, 13 shows)
Party Time (2, 20.2 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 41% of the actual 22-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.