Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2012-08-31, Dick's Sporting Goods Park were:
Cavern (10, 6.6 shows)
Back on the Train (9, 5.7 shows)
Maze (9, 6.8 shows)
Golden Age (9, 7 shows)
Ghost (8, 4.4 shows)
Piper (8, 5.9 shows)
Roses Are Free (8, 20.5 shows)
Halley's Comet (8, 8 shows)
Free (8, 4.8 shows)
Carini (8, 5.2 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (7, 13.7 shows)
Stash (7, 6.4 shows)
The Wedge (6, 6.8 shows)
Hold Your Head Up (6, 44.5 shows)
Cities (6, 11.6 shows)
Gumbo (6, 12.4 shows)
Simple (6, 7.2 shows)
Alaska (6, 25.4 shows)
Good Times Bad Times (6, 17.8 shows)
Show of Life (5, 28.1 shows)
Bug (5, 10.3 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (5, 6.6 shows)
Golgi Apparatus (5, 11.6 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 11.9 shows)
Scent of a Mule (5, 21.4 shows)
NICU (5, 12.4 shows)
Sneakin' Sally Through the Alley (5, 19.8 shows)
Joy (5, 15.3 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (5, 12.7 shows)
Nellie Kane (4, 22.3 shows)
Rocky Top (4, 26.7 shows)
Party Time (4, 19.1 shows)
Prince Caspian (4, 8.3 shows)
The Squirming Coil (4, 13 shows)
Split Open and Melt (4, 9.1 shows)
Timber (Jerry the Mule) (4, 15.7 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 13% of the actual 15-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.