Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2011-12-30, Madison Square Garden were:
David Bowie (10, 6.9 shows)
Piper (10, 5.6 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (9, 5.3 shows)
Ocelot (9, 7.5 shows)
Sand (9, 4.5 shows)
Wilson (8, 7.6 shows)
Ghost (8, 4.3 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (8, 9.8 shows)
Light (8, 5.3 shows)
Divided Sky (8, 8.6 shows)
Rift (7, 7 shows)
AC/DC Bag (7, 8.4 shows)
Reba (7, 7.9 shows)
The Wedge (7, 6.6 shows)
Fluffhead (7, 8.6 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (6, 11.4 shows)
46 Days (6, 4.4 shows)
Meatstick (6, 11.6 shows)
Timber (Jerry the Mule) (6, 13.9 shows)
Axilla (6, 13.3 shows)
First Tube (6, 6.6 shows)
Golden Age (6, 6.8 shows)
Runaway Jim (6, 8.8 shows)
Prince Caspian (5, 8 shows)
Steam (5, 8.5 shows)
Walls of the Cave (5, 9 shows)
Sneakin' Sally Through the Alley (5, 17.3 shows)
Mound (5, 21.9 shows)
Limb By Limb (5, 11 shows)
Scent of a Mule (5, 19.7 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (5, 12.1 shows)
Foam (4, 24.8 shows)
Gumbo (4, 11.9 shows)
Guelah Papyrus (4, 31.7 shows)
Quinn the Eskimo (The Mighty Quinn) (4, 27.1 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (4, 14.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 52% of the actual 23-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.