Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2009-08-15, Merriweather Post Pavilion were:
Divided Sky (8, 7.3 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (7, 4.7 shows)
Tweezer (7, 4.7 shows)
Limb By Limb (7, 9.9 shows)
Runaway Jim (6, 8.5 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (6, 8.2 shows)
Free (6, 4.8 shows)
The Moma Dance (6, 4.5 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (6, 4.9 shows)
Mike's Song (6, 5 shows)
Grind (6, 22.5 shows)
Ya Mar (5, 13.8 shows)
Rock and Roll (5, 9.5 shows)
Reba (5, 7.5 shows)
Tube (5, 5.4 shows)
Back on the Train (5, 5.6 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (5, 7.3 shows)
Alaska (5, 15.4 shows)
Split Open and Melt (4, 8.8 shows)
Halley's Comet (4, 7.6 shows)
Poor Heart (4, 16.1 shows)
Waste (4, 12.8 shows)
Taste (4, 14.7 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (4, 14.4 shows)
A Day in the Life (4, 22.5 shows)
Maze (4, 6.8 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (4, 10.9 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (4, 10.9 shows)
The Wedge (4, 7 shows)
Horn (3, 15.7 shows)
Light (3, 5.1 shows)
Cavern (3, 6 shows)
Foam (3, 20.5 shows)
Undermind (3, 11.1 shows)
When the Circus Comes (3, 20.5 shows)
Bug (3, 10.4 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 32% of the actual 22-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.