Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2003-07-18, Alpine Valley Music Theatre were:
Down with Disease (7, 4.2 shows)
Character Zero (7, 4.5 shows)
David Bowie (7, 5.8 shows)
Piper (6, 5.2 shows)
Sample in a Jar (6, 6.6 shows)
Stash (5, 5.8 shows)
Bathtub Gin (5, 4.9 shows)
Taste (5, 12.7 shows)
Mountains in the Mist (4, 20 shows)
Friday (4, 56.8 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (4, 10.6 shows)
Lawn Boy (4, 10.1 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (4, 5.2 shows)
Water in the Sky (4, 15.4 shows)
46 Days (4, 4.7 shows)
Mexican Cousin (4, 49.3 shows)
The Moma Dance (4, 4.6 shows)
Birds of a Feather (4, 7.9 shows)
Twist (4, 5.1 shows)
Free (4, 4.9 shows)
All of These Dreams (4, 49.3 shows)
Possum (4, 4.2 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (4, 10.4 shows)
Wilson (3, 6.7 shows)
Prince Caspian (3, 7.5 shows)
Rift (3, 7.6 shows)
Heavy Things (3, 11.5 shows)
The Squirming Coil (3, 10.7 shows)
Loving Cup (3, 9 shows)
Fast Enough for You (3, 35.2 shows)
Thunderhead (3, 105.6 shows)
Ghost (3, 4.6 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (3, 7.3 shows)
NICU (3, 9.7 shows)
Rock and Roll (3, 9.1 shows)
Simple (3, 7.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 35% of the actual 17-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.