Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 1997-12-31, Madison Square Garden were:
Limb By Limb (22, 6.3 shows)
Prince Caspian (21, 6.7 shows)
Dogs Stole Things (20, 23.9 shows)
Beauty of My Dreams (20, 17.9 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (17, 4.5 shows)
Maze (15, 6.7 shows)
Loving Cup (15, 7.6 shows)
Ginseng Sullivan (15, 21.8 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (14, 5.2 shows)
When the Circus Comes (14, 13.2 shows)
Piper (14, 4.8 shows)
Billy Breathes (14, 22.8 shows)
Waste (13, 11.1 shows)
Jam (13, 27.1 shows)
Free (13, 5.3 shows)
Bathtub Gin (12, 5 shows)
Ya Mar (12, 10.7 shows)
Poor Heart (11, 13.2 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (11, 4.9 shows)
Twist (11, 5.4 shows)
Mike's Song (11, 5 shows)
Reba (10, 7.6 shows)
Sparkle (10, 12.2 shows)
Johnny B. Goode (10, 91.1 shows)
Vultures (10, 20.4 shows)
Hello My Baby (10, 40.1 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (10, 9.2 shows)
Tweezer (9, 5 shows)
Swept Away (9, 50.1 shows)
Steep (9, 50.1 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (9, 5 shows)
Timber (Jerry the Mule) (8, 15.2 shows)
The Squirming Coil (8, 9.7 shows)
Gumbo (7, 12.1 shows)
Wilson (7, 6.9 shows)
Love Me (7, 111.3 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 63% of the actual 24-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.