Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2012-12-31, Madison Square Garden were:
Possum (12, 4.8 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (11, 4.2 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (11, 5.3 shows)
Mike's Song (11, 5.5 shows)
Light (10, 5.5 shows)
Sand (10, 4.7 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (9, 5.1 shows)
Rift (9, 7.4 shows)
Character Zero (9, 4.7 shows)
Axilla (9, 14.6 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (8, 5.7 shows)
Wilson (8, 8.3 shows)
Sample in a Jar (8, 8.6 shows)
Piper (7, 6 shows)
Roses Are Free (7, 21.9 shows)
Loving Cup (6, 11.2 shows)
Quinn the Eskimo (The Mighty Quinn) (6, 32.9 shows)
Silent in the Morning (6, 13.8 shows)
Ghost (6, 4.4 shows)
The Horse (6, 20.2 shows)
Hold Your Head Up (6, 43.8 shows)
Birds of a Feather (6, 7.6 shows)
Crosseyed and Painless (5, 12 shows)
Heavy Things (5, 13.2 shows)
Alaska (5, 27.7 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (5, 7.9 shows)
Golgi Apparatus (5, 11.7 shows)
Gumbo (5, 12.5 shows)
The Wedge (5, 6.8 shows)
If I Could (4, 27.7 shows)
Meatstick (4, 12.8 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (4, 12.8 shows)
Walk Away (4, 30.9 shows)
Shine a Light (4, 27.7 shows)
Simple (4, 7.3 shows)
My Soul (4, 17 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 73% of the actual 30-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.